Soccer — Vegas edges
xgb_v1 (XGB+LR ensemble) probability vs vig-removed best book price across US books (DK / FanDuel / BetMGM / etc.). Edges are logged + graded automatically — see performance panel below.
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⚠ Paper-trade research mode
xgb_v1 walk-forward Brier 0.616 vs bookmaker ~0.45 — model has signal but isn't beating-the-book yet. Nightly scheduler jobs are growing lineup / injury / manager coverage (current: <2%); the weekly retrain (Mon 12:00 UTC) promotes the new model only if it improves Brier. Use the edge performance panel above to validate ROI before sizing real money.
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